Just lately, LightCounting, a market analysis institute within the optical communications trade, launched a analysis report on the expertise evolution path for the optical entry subject, 50G PON LOOKS LIKE A CLEAR WNNER VS 25G. Within the report, LightCounting predicts the following improve applied sciences of XG(S) PON based mostly on the trade improvement historical past and traits, and believes that 50G PON has a greater prospect than 25G PON sooner or later.
Prior to now 2021, world FTTx deployment had accelerated, because of the sturdy progress of 10G PON. In line with this development, LightCounting factors out in one other forecast report that the optical entry market will proceed to develop quickly from 2022 to 2027. At the moment, 10G PON has been deployed in most international locations and areas. With the event of digital financial system and the continual digital transformation of industries, operators at the moment are paying shut consideration to 10G PON evolution sooner or later. 25G and 50G PON have been thought-about as candidate applied sciences for future evolution of XG(S) PON.
Within the evaluation of 25G PON and 50G PON, LightCounting first factors out that 50G PON has change into an ITU normal in 2021, whereas symmetric 25G PON has not been standardized but. Then, based mostly on the traits of trade improvement, LightCounting analyzes the 2 applied sciences following three dimensions:
- From the angle of expertise improvement historical past, based mostly on the event comparability between 40GE and 100GE Ethernet and between 200GE and 400GE Ethernet, merchandise with larger charges shall be accepted by market customers. Operators don’t want to fret about bandwidth redundancy brought on by high-speed entry. With the event of the digital financial system and the rise of community purposes, customers will certainly have larger necessities for community bandwidth and use high-speed bandwidth.
- From the angle of market affect, the selection of operators with larger market shares will outline the event path of expertise. At the moment, fiber customers within the Chinese language market account for greater than 70% of the world’s FTTH finish customers. As soon as fiber deployment is full, the price of upgrading networks to the subsequent era will not be excessive. Subsequently, the selection of Chinese language operators will largely decide the event of all the trade. China’s three main operators have chosen 50G PON because the evolution route of next-generation fiber networks with out exception. This selection will set the stage for the evolution of XG(S) PON.
- From the angle of technical value, technical progress and large-scale rollout will carry fast value discount sooner or later. Subsequently, the applying of latest applied sciences must be evaluated not solely based mostly on the preliminary value, but in addition from the angle of improvement. Larger preliminary prices is not going to change into an impediment to the promotion of 50G PON sooner or later.
Contemplating the previous three elements and historic information, LightCounting offers its estimation for future 25G PON and 50G PON ONU shipments.
LightCounting believes that with fast deployment in China, the overall cargo of 50G PON will exceed that of 25G PON from the preliminary deployment part, and the distinction will solely change into bigger very quick within the ramp-up part. China Cellular, China Telecom, China Unicom, and main European operators, similar to Swisscom, Orange, and Telefonica, have chosen 50G PON because the evolution route of optical entry XG(S) PON. At the moment, though some operators in North America and Europe might choose 25G PON, the shipments are comparatively small in comparison with that of 50G PON. Subsequently, 50G PON will change into a transparent winner and take up the foremost market share.